Defense will win a championship in the 2026 WNBA Finals, but will Valkyries or Dream prevail?
· Yahoo Sports
OAKLAND, Calif. — Personally, Kiah Stokes feels validated.
The veteran center crafted a two-time WNBA championship career by being a defensive player. It’s fueled her trajectory so much, she’s back in the WNBA Finals after averaging 3.6 points per game and less than a bucket over her career.
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The No. 2-seeded Golden State Valkyries crushed the league in defensive rating all year (99.1). And amid a season of historic offenses, the gap between the second-year expansion squad and the rest is believed to be the largest of all time.
Standing in their way is the No. 4 Atlanta Dream, the league’s second-best defense in 2026, and a team that ratcheted up its tenacity since a trip to Boca Raton during the FIBA World Cup break.
Defense will win a championship this year.
“It is just incredible,” Stokes said before practice on Friday at the Valkyries’ Sephora Performance Center. “It just shows [that] all those quotes, and now it's like we're just kind of living that moment.”
Together, the Valkyries and Dream feature six WNBA All-Defense first- and second-team selections. Dream forward Angel Reese won Defensive Player of the Year. Valkyries forward Gabby Williams finished runner-up. Rhyne Howard (first team) and Jordin Canada (second) joined the 10-player all-defense for Atlanta; Veronica Burton and Stokes for Golden State.
Williams watched the post-game press conferences after the semifinals and noted on Friday before practice that the same cliché was used by their stars — except as a lament, rather than a triumph.
“Like people say, ‘defense wins championships,’” New York Liberty veteran Breanna Stewart said of where her team fell short. “It’s f***ing true.”
The Indiana Fever and Minnesota Lynx set offensive records this season. The Fever averaged 96 points per game and a 115 offensive rating, led by an average of 47 points per game by Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark. The Lynx paced similarly throughout the season until faltering down the stretch, leading to their Rookie of the Year Olivia Miles finishing second in MVP voting.
Neither team is playing deep into October after their first-round exits to the Aces and Liberty, respectively. It also became the downfall of those Aces and Liberty, who were swept out of the semifinals by the Valkyries and Dream.
“Things get stickier in the playoffs,” Williams, an eight-year veteran, said the day before her first WNBA Finals. “For some reason, a lid is going to be on the basket at some point. Things are just tighter, things are more physical, so you can’t rely on offense because you can’t necessarily control shots going in or not, or getting to the free throw line, or whatever may be.
“But effort can be controlled way more on the defensive end.”
It is where each of these teams has staked their claim to a historic Finals berth, and what they will ride to a first title. The Valkyries are in Year 2 of existence, with team owner Joe Lacob setting a goal of a title in the first five years. The Dream are in their fourth Finals, and first since 2013, but have yet to win since entering the league as an expansion franchise in 2008.
Williams, the Valkyries’ signature free agent signing, later in the conversation rapped her knuckles on the table for luck that shots go in, particularly the last one in a series that could be tight. The Valkyries have made defense the staple since head coach Natalie Nakase, a two-time champion assistant with the Aces, took the job.
“I don't think they wanted to go after any person in the expansion draft, regular draft, or free agency that wasn't going to play defense,” Williams said. “I think that starts there.”
To lead the league on the defensive side of the ball does not happen by accident. For the Dream, it was a byproduct of a two-year plan by head coach Karl Smesko. He wanted to implement a new offensive identity in his first year on the job after league-lows by the roster. Coming into his second year, he eyed more progress defensively. It super-charged the past two months once play resumed from the international break.
“You always hear that defense wins championships,” Howard said. “I don’t think that’s really been taken into consideration the past years because — not that teams don’t play defense, but they’re not as defensive-minded as [our teams]. I think it’s going to come down really to who can get more stops and who can create easier shots for themselves.”
The team that can find more offense could be the one to take individual games in this best-of-seven. It’s the second year of the format; last year’s series was an Aces sweep of the Mercury. Williams proved herself as the bucket-getter for the Valkyries, though anyone on their roster can pop at different times. The Dream have the better offense, but arguably no bona fide star in her prime that’s been on this stage before.
It is the first WNBA Finals since 2021 without either Stewart or five-time Aces MVP A’ja Wilson, and only the third in nine years. They faced each other in two Finals over that span. It is a rare WNBA Finals in that neither team features an MVP candidate. Reese, Howard, Burton and Williams each received a few down-ballot votes, but none were in true contention.
There is also a lack of individual accomplishment in the coaching category. Neither Smesko nor Nakase won Coach of the Year (Nakase won last year). Janelle Salaün won Sixth Player for a team that received record production off the bench. These are teams of the collective versus the individual.
This Finals series will introduce a superstar proving they’re made for the stage. It will almost assuredly come on the defensive side, and it will prove the old adage again — no matter the result.